The NW7US Beacon

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jun 19 0506 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 June 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 16 and 18 Jun. M1 flares were observed at 16/0530 UTC from Region 3337 (N17, L=263, class/area Axx/010 on 16 Jun), 16/1038 UTC from Region 3338 (N11, L=263, class/area Cso/140 on 16 Jun), 16/1959 UTC from Region 3331 (S22, L=017, class/area Eso/180 on 09 Jun), and 18/0031 UTC from Region 3336 (S20, L=281, class/area Cso/160 on 14 Jun). An M2.5/2n flare was also observed from Region 3336 at 18/1353 UTC. Activity from Region 3336 was likely due to its proximity to Region 3335 (S15, L=284, class/area Eki/390 on 17 Jun). A type II radio sweep (440 km/s) and a narrow CME directed off the SE limb at 18/1408 UTC was associated with the M2 flare. Although unlikely to have much of an Earth-directed component, initial WSA/ENLIL runs determined a possible grazing late on 21 Jun. Other activity included a large filament eruption centered near N22W50 that began lifting off at 17/1844 UTC. Coronagraph imagery depicted an associated CME off the NW limb beginning at 18/0125 UTC. Modelling of the event showed a miss, however a glancing blow on 21-22 Jun cannot be ruled out.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 17-18 Jun with a peak flux of 3,840 pfu at 18/1430 UTC due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. The period began with slightly enhanced solar wind speeds in the 430-485 km/s range and total field around 6-8 nT. Nominal levels returned on 14 Jun. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 12 and 14 Jun and quiet levels on 13 Jun. After 15/0800 UTC, total field began to rise followed by an increase in solar wind speed and a change in phi angle as a CIR and negative polarity CH HSS was becoming geoeffective. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 742 km/s at 16/1215 UTC and the Bz component reached a maximum of -13 nT at 15/1655 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G2 storming on 15 Jun and Unsettled to G2 storming on 16 Jun. By 17 Jun, solar wind speeds were slowly diminishing and reached background levels on 18 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on those days.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 June - 15 July 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the forecast period (19 Jun-15 Jul).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels on 19-24 Jun and again on 14-15 Jul due to HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 19-21 Jun, 27-28 Jun, 01-02 Jul, 08 Jul, and 12-15 Jul with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely on 12-13 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS effects. There is a chance for CME effects on 21-22 Jun related to the CME eruptions on 17 and 18 Jun.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jun 12 0122 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 June 2023

Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class flares during the period. The largest event was an M4.7 flare (R1-Minor) at 07/1146 UTC from Region 3327 (S14, L=052, class/area = Dki/300 on 06 June). Region 3331 (N18, L=066, class/area = Dro/20 on 07 June) produced an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 09/1711 UTC. The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk were either quiet or produced C-class events.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels each day of the highlight period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled levels were reached on 06, 07, and 11 June. Quiet conditions were observed on 05 and 08-10 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 June - 08 July 2023

Solar activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period due to several complex regions currently on the visible disk and the anticipated return of several regions that have produced moderate level activity currently on the farside of the Sun.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 17-21 June in response to elevated wind speeds from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is anticipated to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 12-13, 16, 27-28 June and 09 July with unsettled conditions likely on 17-18 June and 01-02 July due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jun 05 0151 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 May - 04 June 2023

Solar activity was high. There were a total of seven M-class flares during the period. The largest event was an M4.2/Sf flare (R1-Minor) from Region 3323 (S07, L=100, class/area = Ehi/320 on 04 June). Regions 3310 (S20, L=284, class/area = Cho/480 on 24 May), 3315 (S16, L=233, class/area = Ekc/630 on 29 May), 3319 (S19, L=199, class/area = Dhi/300 on 31 May), and 3324 (N15, L=159, class/area = Bxo/20 on 02 June) also produced M-class flaring below the M5 level. The remaining numbered active regions on the visible disk were either quiet or only produced C-class events.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels each day of the highlight period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were reached on 01 and 04 June, with unsettled conditions observed on 31 May as a result of recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet levels were reported for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 June - 01 July 2023

Solar activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period, due to several complex regions currently on the visible disk and the anticipated return of several regions that have produced moderate level activity currently on the farside of the Sun.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 05-10 and 19-24 June in response to elevated wind speeds from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is anticipated to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 18 June; active levels are likely on 12,19-20, and 28 June; unsettled conditions are likely on 05-06, 11, 13, 21, 27 June and 01 July due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 29 0142 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 May 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate level. Region 3311 (N18, L=274, class/area=Eai/470 on 24 May) produced the strongest event of the period, an M3 (R1 - Minor) flare at 23/1213 UTC. Three other, smaller, M-class events were also produced by the region on 22 May and 24 May. Regions 3315 (S17, L=235, class/area=Ekc/800 on 28 May) and 3312 (S23, L=262, class/area=Cri/070 on 22 May) also produced M-class activity. The remaining 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk were either quiet or only produced C-class events during the reporting period.

Other activity included Type II radio sweeps on 22, 23 and 27 May; however, none of the events were associated with ejecta that was suspected to be Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire week due higher levels of geomagnetic activity followed by sustained elevated solar wind speeds.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels were observed on 22 May as transient influence transitioned in influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. As the HSS continued, active conditions on 23 May further decreased to unsettled levels over 24-25 May. As solar wind speeds returned to nominal levels on 26-27 May, the geomagnetic field responded with quiet conditions. A minor increase to unsettled conditions was observed on 28 May following prolonged periods of southward Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 May - 24 June 2023

Solar activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period due to several complex regions on the visible disk and the anticipated return of several regions that have produced moderate level activity returning from the farside of the Sun.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 03-05 May, 04-10 Jun, and 19-24 Jun in response to elevated wind speeds from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are likely on 02 Jun and 18 Jun; active conditions are likely on 29 May, 03-04 Jun, and 19-20 Jun; unsettled conditions are likely on 30 May, 05-06 Jun, and 21 Jun. All elevated levels of geomagnetic field activity are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 22 0229 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 May 2023

Solar activity varied from low to high levels. Region 3310 (S20, L=284, class/area=Cko/320 on 19 May) produced the strongest flare of the period, an M9.6 (R2-Moderate) flare at 16/1643 UTC before it fully rotated on to the visible disk from the SE limb. Of the 23 M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) recorded during the period, Region 3311 (N18, L=271, class/area=Ekc/420) was responsible for 21 of them, the largest of which was an M8.9 (R2) flare at 20/1235 UTC. Although the region was the most magnetically complex of the 18 numbered active regions observed on the visible disk during the reporting period, it was in a decaying trend by 21 May.

Other activity included Type II radio sweeps at 16/1731 UTC and 17/1522 UTC, two Tenflares on 20 May, and a filament eruption along side a CME-producing C4.3/Sf flare at 17/1530 UTC from Region 3309 (S18, L=052, class/area=Cro/020). The subsequent CME signatures in coronagraph were analyzed and modeled with anticipated effects at Earth suggested late on 21 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was mostly at background to moderate levels over the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 15-16 May and decreased to only quiet levels until of late on 19 May. Active levels were observed during the last synoptic period of 19 May and increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels early on 20 May. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 21 nT and Bz reached as far south as -17 nT during what appeared to be a CIR, with possible embedded transient, ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Bz was persistently southward during the first half 20 May but rotated northward just before midday. With the northward rotation, geomagnetic activity decreased to unsettled to active conditions. On 21 May, another enhancement in the solar wind from an expected CME that left the Sun on 17 May was observed which again resulted in G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels through the end of the reporting period. With the second enhancement, solar wind speeds increased to between 500-600 km/s and total magnetic field strength briefly reached 13 nT, while the Bz component was observed as far south as -10 nt.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 May - 17 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high, with a chance for very high, though 30 May, until Region 3311 rotates around the western limb or decays sufficiently to lower its flare potential. Low to moderate solar activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels from 22 May - 02 Jun in response to recently elevated geomagnetic activity followed by enhanced solar wind from coronal hole influence over the next 6 days. Flux levels are likely to return to moderate levels from 03-17 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 22 May due to persistent transient influence and 23-24 May in response to negative polarity coronal hole influence. Active conditions are anticipated on 02 Jun and 16 Jun with unsettled conditions likely on 25-26 May, 03-05 Jun, and 17 Jun due to multiple recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 15 0254 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 May 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 09 May and moderate levels on 08, 10, and 11 May. In total, nine M-class flares were observed from three sunspot regions this period. Region 3296 (N15, L=140, class/area=Ekc/290 on 10 May) was the most active sunspot region and produced two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region 3294 (S07, L=125, class/area=Cso/130 on 11 May) produced two R1 events and Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May) produced a single R1 event. Two solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with this weeks activity were observed as were multiple Earth-directed CMEs; see below for more information.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels in two distinct SEP events. The first SEP event followed a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region 3296 and reached S1 levels at 08/1240 UTC, reached a peak of 38 pfu at 09/0150 UTC, and ended at 09/1235 UTC. The second SEP event followed an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296 and reached S1 levels at 09/2335 UTC, reached a peak of 83 pfu at 10/1250 UTC, and ended at 11/0405 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) levels on 08 May due to the continued (at the time) influence of CMEs (from 05 May) that arrived on 07 May. G1 (Minor) storms were observed again on 09-10 May due to the arrival of CMEs that resulted from a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region 3296. G1 (Minor) storms were observed on 12 May due to the arrival of a CME that resulted from an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 May - 10 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 May-02 Jun, with normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 16 May due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 12 May. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23, 25-26 May, due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 02 Jun in response to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 08 0248 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 May 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 01 and 03 May, moderate levels on 04, 05, and 07 May, and low levels on 02 and 06 May. A total of eleven M-flares were observed this period, of which were two R2 (Moderate) events and nine R1 (Minor) events. The largest events were an M7 flare at 01/1309 UTC from Region 3288 (S23, L=267, class/area=Ehc/420 on 30 Apr) and an M7 flare at 03/1045 UTC from Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May). Region 3296 (N16, L=135, class/area=Dki/300 on 04 May) produced four R1 events over 04, 05, and 07 May. Earth-directed CMEs were detected following an M3 flare at 04/0844 UTC from Region 3296, a C9 flare at 05/0706 UTC from Region 3297 (N08, L=119, class/area=Eki/500 on 04 May), and an M2 flare at 05/0801 UTC from Region 3296.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 01-06 May and moderate levels on 07 May.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 06 May due to CME passage and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions were observed on 01 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and again on 07 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and CME (from 04 May) passage. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 May - 03 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the period with M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) likely over 08 May-03 Jun.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-20 May and 23 May-02 Jun. Normal to moderate levels are likely on 08-10, 21-22 May, and 03 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 08 May, and G1 (Minor) levels on 09 May, in response to CME (from 04 May) passage and positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely again on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23 and 25-26 May, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 01 0202 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 April 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Low levels were observed throughout the period from Regions 3282 (N11, L=024, class/area Eki/530 on 16 Apr), 3283 (S20, L=356, class/area Bxo/050 on 20 Apr), 3285 (S19, L=273, class/area Cao/240 on 27 Apr), 3288 (S23, L=267, class/area Ehc/420 on 30 Apr), 3289 (N20, L=213, class/area Dai/220 on 30 Apr) and 3293 (N13, L=141, class/area Cao/030 on 30 Apr).

Activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.8/Sn flare at 27/1114 UTC from Region 3288. New Region 3293 produced an M2.4/1f flare at 30/2028 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached normal to moderate levels on 24-25 April and 30 April. High levels were observed on 26-29 April with a high flux reading of 12,967 pfu at 29/1645 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G4 (Severe) storm conditions during the period. The period began with G2 (Moderate), G3 (Strong) and G4 (Severe) storm conditions due to response from the full-halo CME that left the Sun on 21 Apr. These storm conditions were observed midday on 27 April as the CME effects were beginning to wane. The later half of 27 April through 28 April observed quiet to active levels due to waning CME effects. During 26-30 April, quiet to active levels were observed due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 May - 27 May 2023

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 01-13 May and 17-27 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-06 May, with normal to moderate levels on 07-27 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 01-04, 06,07, 11-12 and 23-27 May, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 24 May, all due to CH HSS effects. Some weak CME effects are possible on 02-03 May. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05, 08-10 and 13-22 May.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Apr 24 1316 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 April 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 17-20 Apr and 22-23 Apr from Regions 3272 (S21, L=102, class/area Eai/280 on 09 Apr), 3280 (S08, L=117, class/area Dsi/240 on 15 Apr), 3281 (S24, L=019, class/area Dko/350 on 14 Apr), 3282 (N11, L=024, class/area Eki/530 on 16 Apr), 3283 (S20, L=356, class/area Dro/080 on 19 Apr) and 3285 (S17, L=272, class/area Dao/180 on 22 Apr).

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 21 April due to an M1.7/2n (R1-Minor) flare from Region 3283 at 21/1812 UTC. Accompanying the flare were Type II (580 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Subsequent SOHO LASCO C2 imagery observed a full-halo CME signature beginning after 23/1812 UTC.

The greater than 10 Mev protons exceeded the S1 (Minor) threshold at 23/1820 UTC with a peak value of 26.2 pfu. This increase was in response to the passage from a shock ahead of the 21 Apr CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G4 (Severe) storm conditions during the period. Quiet conditions were observed on 17 Apr through midday on 18 Apr. Unsettled to active conditions were observed on midday 18 Apr through a majority of 19 Apr due to weak CME effects. Quiet to isolated unsettled conditions were observed on 20 Apr through the first portion of 23 Apr.

Beginning about midday on 23 Apr, geomagnetic conditions rose sharply through the day from active to G4 (Severe) geomagetic storm conditions in response to the arrival of the full-halo CME that left the Sun on 21 Apr. A sudden impulse (48 nT) was observed at the Boulder magnetometer beginning at 23/1737 UTC. During this period of activity, total magnetic field strength increased from about 9 nT to 25 nT during the shock. The Bz component rotated south and maintained a far southward configuration to -22 nT through 23/2015 UTC at which point Bz rapidly rotated northward. Solar wind speeds rapidly increased from about 350 km/s to above 600 km/s by about 23/1945 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 April - 20 May 2023

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares, and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong), flares on 24-26 Apr and again on 07-20 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 25-30 Apr and 01-06 May due to residual CME effects on 25-26 Apr followed by CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G3 (Strong) levels early on 24 Apr due to CME effects. G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) levels are expected through the remainder of 24 Apr due to CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 25-30 Apr and 01-04 May, 07 May and 11-12 May due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05-05 May, 08-10 May and 13-20 May.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..