The NW7US Beacon

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 22 0229 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 May 2023

Solar activity varied from low to high levels. Region 3310 (S20, L=284, class/area=Cko/320 on 19 May) produced the strongest flare of the period, an M9.6 (R2-Moderate) flare at 16/1643 UTC before it fully rotated on to the visible disk from the SE limb. Of the 23 M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) recorded during the period, Region 3311 (N18, L=271, class/area=Ekc/420) was responsible for 21 of them, the largest of which was an M8.9 (R2) flare at 20/1235 UTC. Although the region was the most magnetically complex of the 18 numbered active regions observed on the visible disk during the reporting period, it was in a decaying trend by 21 May.

Other activity included Type II radio sweeps at 16/1731 UTC and 17/1522 UTC, two Tenflares on 20 May, and a filament eruption along side a CME-producing C4.3/Sf flare at 17/1530 UTC from Region 3309 (S18, L=052, class/area=Cro/020). The subsequent CME signatures in coronagraph were analyzed and modeled with anticipated effects at Earth suggested late on 21 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was mostly at background to moderate levels over the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 15-16 May and decreased to only quiet levels until of late on 19 May. Active levels were observed during the last synoptic period of 19 May and increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels early on 20 May. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 21 nT and Bz reached as far south as -17 nT during what appeared to be a CIR, with possible embedded transient, ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Bz was persistently southward during the first half 20 May but rotated northward just before midday. With the northward rotation, geomagnetic activity decreased to unsettled to active conditions. On 21 May, another enhancement in the solar wind from an expected CME that left the Sun on 17 May was observed which again resulted in G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels through the end of the reporting period. With the second enhancement, solar wind speeds increased to between 500-600 km/s and total magnetic field strength briefly reached 13 nT, while the Bz component was observed as far south as -10 nt.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 May - 17 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high, with a chance for very high, though 30 May, until Region 3311 rotates around the western limb or decays sufficiently to lower its flare potential. Low to moderate solar activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels from 22 May - 02 Jun in response to recently elevated geomagnetic activity followed by enhanced solar wind from coronal hole influence over the next 6 days. Flux levels are likely to return to moderate levels from 03-17 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 22 May due to persistent transient influence and 23-24 May in response to negative polarity coronal hole influence. Active conditions are anticipated on 02 Jun and 16 Jun with unsettled conditions likely on 25-26 May, 03-05 Jun, and 17 Jun due to multiple recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

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..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 15 0254 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 May 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 09 May and moderate levels on 08, 10, and 11 May. In total, nine M-class flares were observed from three sunspot regions this period. Region 3296 (N15, L=140, class/area=Ekc/290 on 10 May) was the most active sunspot region and produced two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region 3294 (S07, L=125, class/area=Cso/130 on 11 May) produced two R1 events and Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May) produced a single R1 event. Two solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with this weeks activity were observed as were multiple Earth-directed CMEs; see below for more information.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels in two distinct SEP events. The first SEP event followed a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region 3296 and reached S1 levels at 08/1240 UTC, reached a peak of 38 pfu at 09/0150 UTC, and ended at 09/1235 UTC. The second SEP event followed an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296 and reached S1 levels at 09/2335 UTC, reached a peak of 83 pfu at 10/1250 UTC, and ended at 11/0405 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) levels on 08 May due to the continued (at the time) influence of CMEs (from 05 May) that arrived on 07 May. G1 (Minor) storms were observed again on 09-10 May due to the arrival of CMEs that resulted from a pair of long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region 3296. G1 (Minor) storms were observed on 12 May due to the arrival of a CME that resulted from an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 May - 10 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 May-02 Jun, with normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 16 May due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 12 May. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23, 25-26 May, due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 02 Jun in response to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

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..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 08 0248 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 May 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 01 and 03 May, moderate levels on 04, 05, and 07 May, and low levels on 02 and 06 May. A total of eleven M-flares were observed this period, of which were two R2 (Moderate) events and nine R1 (Minor) events. The largest events were an M7 flare at 01/1309 UTC from Region 3288 (S23, L=267, class/area=Ehc/420 on 30 Apr) and an M7 flare at 03/1045 UTC from Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May). Region 3296 (N16, L=135, class/area=Dki/300 on 04 May) produced four R1 events over 04, 05, and 07 May. Earth-directed CMEs were detected following an M3 flare at 04/0844 UTC from Region 3296, a C9 flare at 05/0706 UTC from Region 3297 (N08, L=119, class/area=Eki/500 on 04 May), and an M2 flare at 05/0801 UTC from Region 3296.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 01-06 May and moderate levels on 07 May.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 06 May due to CME passage and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions were observed on 01 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and again on 07 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and CME (from 04 May) passage. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 May - 03 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the period with M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) likely over 08 May-03 Jun.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-20 May and 23 May-02 Jun. Normal to moderate levels are likely on 08-10, 21-22 May, and 03 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 08 May, and G1 (Minor) levels on 09 May, in response to CME (from 04 May) passage and positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely again on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23 and 25-26 May, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

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The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 May 01 0202 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 April 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Low levels were observed throughout the period from Regions 3282 (N11, L=024, class/area Eki/530 on 16 Apr), 3283 (S20, L=356, class/area Bxo/050 on 20 Apr), 3285 (S19, L=273, class/area Cao/240 on 27 Apr), 3288 (S23, L=267, class/area Ehc/420 on 30 Apr), 3289 (N20, L=213, class/area Dai/220 on 30 Apr) and 3293 (N13, L=141, class/area Cao/030 on 30 Apr).

Activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.8/Sn flare at 27/1114 UTC from Region 3288. New Region 3293 produced an M2.4/1f flare at 30/2028 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached normal to moderate levels on 24-25 April and 30 April. High levels were observed on 26-29 April with a high flux reading of 12,967 pfu at 29/1645 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G4 (Severe) storm conditions during the period. The period began with G2 (Moderate), G3 (Strong) and G4 (Severe) storm conditions due to response from the full-halo CME that left the Sun on 21 Apr. These storm conditions were observed midday on 27 April as the CME effects were beginning to wane. The later half of 27 April through 28 April observed quiet to active levels due to waning CME effects. During 26-30 April, quiet to active levels were observed due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 May - 27 May 2023

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 01-13 May and 17-27 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-06 May, with normal to moderate levels on 07-27 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 01-04, 06,07, 11-12 and 23-27 May, with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 24 May, all due to CH HSS effects. Some weak CME effects are possible on 02-03 May. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05, 08-10 and 13-22 May.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

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Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Apr 24 1316 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 April 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 17-20 Apr and 22-23 Apr from Regions 3272 (S21, L=102, class/area Eai/280 on 09 Apr), 3280 (S08, L=117, class/area Dsi/240 on 15 Apr), 3281 (S24, L=019, class/area Dko/350 on 14 Apr), 3282 (N11, L=024, class/area Eki/530 on 16 Apr), 3283 (S20, L=356, class/area Dro/080 on 19 Apr) and 3285 (S17, L=272, class/area Dao/180 on 22 Apr).

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 21 April due to an M1.7/2n (R1-Minor) flare from Region 3283 at 21/1812 UTC. Accompanying the flare were Type II (580 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Subsequent SOHO LASCO C2 imagery observed a full-halo CME signature beginning after 23/1812 UTC.

The greater than 10 Mev protons exceeded the S1 (Minor) threshold at 23/1820 UTC with a peak value of 26.2 pfu. This increase was in response to the passage from a shock ahead of the 21 Apr CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G4 (Severe) storm conditions during the period. Quiet conditions were observed on 17 Apr through midday on 18 Apr. Unsettled to active conditions were observed on midday 18 Apr through a majority of 19 Apr due to weak CME effects. Quiet to isolated unsettled conditions were observed on 20 Apr through the first portion of 23 Apr.

Beginning about midday on 23 Apr, geomagnetic conditions rose sharply through the day from active to G4 (Severe) geomagetic storm conditions in response to the arrival of the full-halo CME that left the Sun on 21 Apr. A sudden impulse (48 nT) was observed at the Boulder magnetometer beginning at 23/1737 UTC. During this period of activity, total magnetic field strength increased from about 9 nT to 25 nT during the shock. The Bz component rotated south and maintained a far southward configuration to -22 nT through 23/2015 UTC at which point Bz rapidly rotated northward. Solar wind speeds rapidly increased from about 350 km/s to above 600 km/s by about 23/1945 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 April - 20 May 2023

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares, and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong), flares on 24-26 Apr and again on 07-20 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 25-30 Apr and 01-06 May due to residual CME effects on 25-26 Apr followed by CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G3 (Strong) levels early on 24 Apr due to CME effects. G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) levels are expected through the remainder of 24 Apr due to CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 25-30 Apr and 01-04 May, 07 May and 11-12 May due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 05-05 May, 08-10 May and 13-20 May.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Apr 17 0333 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 April 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 10, 11, and 14 Apr due to M-class flaring from Regions 3272 (S21, L=102, class/area Eai/280 on 09 Apr), 3276 (S20, L=050, class/area Dao/80 on 11 Apr), and 3282 (N11, L=024, class/area Eki/530 on 16 Apr). These included an M2 at 10/0520 UTC from Region 3276, an M1/1n at 11/1016 UTC from Region 3272, and a pair of M1 flares at 14/1618 UTC and 14/2327 UTC from Region 3282. The period began with initially two numbered spot groups, but grew to nine spotted regions by the end of the period.

Other activity included multiple filament eruption and CMEs. The majority of the CMEs were determined to not be Earth-directed. However, a slow moving partial halo CME was observed at 16/0125 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery associated with a filament eruption near N20W40 at 15/2300 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. Modelling and analysis of this event indicated the potential for a weak glancing blow on 22 Apr.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters began with a solar sector boundary crossing around 10/0620 UTC followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased to around 530 km/s by midday on 10 Apr before decreasing to near nominal levels by late on 11 Apr. Weaker positive polarity CH HSS conditions occurred on 14-15 Apr. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 10 Apr, quiet to unsettled levels on 11, 13-15 Apr, and quiet conditions on 12 and 16 Apr.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 April - 13 May 2023

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 17-25 Apr and again on 08-13 May due to the flare potential of Region 3282.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 Apr-06 May due CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21-22 Apr due to a combination of a glancing blow from the 16 Apr CME and the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are again expected on 26 Apr-04 May, 07 May, and 11-12 May with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 26-28 Apr and 30 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

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Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Apr 10 0353 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 April 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 03-05, 07, and 09 Apr while moderate levels were observed on 06 and 08 Apr. Region 3272 (S21, L=102, class/area Eai/280 on 09 Apr) was responsible for the majority of the C-class activity since its emergence on 05 Apr. The region also produced M3 and M2/1n flares at 06/0553 UTC and 08/0146 UTC, respectively. Other activity included a CME off the SW limb first observed at 07/1336 UTC that was associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 07/0829 UTC centered near S27W10. Modelling indicated a miss, however a glancing blow could not be ruled out early on 12 Apr.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period due to CH HSS influence. The maximum flux was 4,290 pfu observed at 03/1455 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with solar wind speed around 528 km/s with total field near 6-7 nT under negative polarity CH HSS influence. By late on 05 Apr, solar wind speed returned to nominal levels until 09/2158 UTC when total field showed a small increase to 8 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 03-04 Apr, quiet to unsettled levels on 05-07 and 09 Apr, and quiet levels on 08 Apr.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 April - 06 May 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 10-25 Apr and again from 02-06 May due to flare potential of Region 3272 and the return of old Region 3256 (S22, L=001) on 12 Apr. Very low to low levels are expected on 26 Apr-01 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 10-11 Apr and again on 23 Apr-06 May due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 10-11 Apr due to CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 12 Apr due to a combination of HSS influence and a possible glancing blow from the 07 Apr CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected again on 17-18 Apr, 20-22 Apr, and 26 Apr-04 May with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 20, 27, and 30 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Apr 03 0156 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 March - 02 April 2023

Solar activity reached high levels due to significant flaring from Region 3256 (S22, L=001, class/area, Fho/340 on 28 Mar). Region 3256 produced: an X1.2 flare (R3-Strong) at 29/0233 UTC; an M5.4/1f flare (R2-Moderate) at 30/0737 UTC; an M1.2/1f flare (R1-Minor) at 29/1407 UTC; and an M1.1/1n flare (R1-Minor) at 29/2347 UTC. Region 3257 (S27, L=350, class/area, Hax/190 on 23 Mar) produced a C9.7/1f flare at 31/2057 UTC. Region 3270 (S23, L=237, class/area, Dao/80 on 02 Apr) provided several low level C-class flares late in the highlight period after its rapid development on 02 Apr.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly elevated following the M5.4/1f flare from Region 3256 mentioned above. A peak value of 0.61 pfu was observed at the GOES-16 spacecraft at 30/1015 UTC, remaining well below the 10 pfu alert threshhold (S1-Minor).

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the reporting period (27 Mar - 02 Apr).

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 31 Mar, with active levels on 30 Mar and 01-02 Apr, due to recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were reported throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 April - 29 April 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flare activity, until the return of Region 3256 on 12 Apr. Region 3256 was responsible for X-class and M-class flare activity (R1-R3) on its previous transit across the visible solar disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 03-06 and 23-29 Apr. Moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-Minor storm levels on 20 and 27 Apr, active levels on 05, 10-11, 16, 18, 21, 26, 28-29 Apr due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Mar 27 0524 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 March 2023

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 20 March due to an isolated M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 20/0148 UTC from Region 3256 (S23, L=010, class/area, Eho/300 on 25 Mar). The large collection of remaining sunspot regions produced nothing higher than C-class flare activity throughout the rest of the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

On 23-24 March, Earth was impacted by the most significant geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. It began as a Strong (G3) geomagnetic storm on 23 March at about 1500 UTC and peaked on 24 March at around 0400 UTC as a Severe (G4) geomagnetic storm. This was the first Severe Geomagnetic Storm since 04 November 2021 (as reported from Potsdam). The storm was significantly stronger than expected. On 22 March, the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued G1 and G2 watches for 23 and 24 March respectively. The most likely source of the geomagnetic storm was a long duration solar flare on 20 March at 1534 UTC. SWPC and international partner modeling suggested weak glancing impacts from the 20 March CME. ENLIL modeling parameters were likely degraded due to the unavailability of wide angle coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO C3) or STEREO Ahead imagery. The solar wind environment was significantly disturbed after the CME arrival. Total field strength peaked at 22 nT. The Bz component reflected prolonged southward deviation of -15 to -17 nT for over 14.5 hours. The remainder of the summary period observed unsettled to active geomagnetic levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 March - 22 April 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) events.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 March - 06 April, with moderate levels on 07-22 April.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20-21 April, with active conditions on 31 Mar and 01, 10-11, 16, 18 April in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

Links of interest:

• Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
• https://Twitter.com/NW7US
• https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..